The war drums were beating at Adam Giambrone's mayoralty launch Monday night. And although the drums were being beaten by the cheerfully diverse bunch calling themselves Samba Squad, there was no mistaking the genial aggression they were stoking among the assembled supporters. And not just supporters: by the time they left the stage and the speakers started, I was ready to go sack a village.
The feeling had been stage managed over more than just the course of that evening. For about a week, Giambrone's skillful supporters had been working hard to make it known that the 32-year-old chair of the Toronto Transit Commission was "ready" to become the next mayor of Toronto.The illusion was well wrought, starting with that too-cute-for-some YouTube video, showing the well-dressed former President of the Federal New Democratic Party jogging, practicing in the mirror and swinging a small broom about before declaring "I'm ready" to be mayor", and finishing with that fantastic drum show.It splintered somewhat with the arrival of the crowd of his own constituents, angry enough to protest his mayoralty launch. And it outright cracked when Giambrone took the stage and delivered an uncomfortable, stay-the-course speech in which he checked out his notes as often as he did his enthusiastic audience. At the end of it, Giambrone emerged as both the weakest and the most formidable candidate in the race so far.His weaknesses come from two places. First is the intangible. Giambrone is emerging as a campaigner of reasonable resolve and moderate charisma. This is a serious weakness; as other candidates in this position have shown - notably, Barbara Hall - it's almost impossible to teach a candidate to be more forceful, and more inspiring. The YouTube video, derided on the blogosphere and Twitterverse as it was, is a good step around that problem by playing up Giambrone's likeable nerdiness. But it doesn't deliver gravitas.The second is all too tangible. And it is a two-edged sword.Giambrone is the highest-profile candidate so far, to represent a continuation of the David Miller vision. All those skilful supporters now helping Giambrone, honed their skills seeing Miller elected in 2003 and 2006. And all those voters robbed of the opportunity to turf Miller out in 2010 will be absolutely committed to seeing Giambrone defeated in his place.There is also the matter of the Toronto Transit Commission, with its antiquated fare media, snoozing token collectors and coffee-swilling bus drivers. Giambrone chairs the TTC, and bears political if not operational responsibility for the system's failings. But here is where Giambrone starts to become formidable. It's true that the TTC's service failings have caught our attention and they are attached to TTC Chair Giambrone. But if the TTC can start to roll out some improvements to customer service - as just last week the commission pledged to do - over the course of the coming months, Giambrone can recover some reputation, and even take advantage of the TTC photo opportunities to show himself as an institutional leader.He's unlikely to get away with that, of course. George Smitherman has already called him out once, demanding he resign from the commission and wear his failures to election day. More of that sort of thing is sure to follow since Giambrone represents a continuation of the Miller years. While Miller and his left-of-centre agenda has fallen out of favour with Torontonians on the whole, his diminished support is still significant. If a Torontonian supports bike lanes, Transit City and the city's green agenda, and wasn't too bothered by the Land Transfer Tax and the Vehicle Registration Tax, Giambrone - and possibly, once his campaign gets going, Deputy Mayor Joe Pantalone - is the only place to park a vote.Torontonians thinking otherwise can vote for all sorts of candidates - Smitherman and Rocco Rossi in the mainstream, Giorgio Mammoliti and Sarah Thomson toward the fringe - and no doubt will.And that gives the underwhelming fellow with the local detractors and enthusiastic drum corps less than an advantage, perhaps - but more than a hope.