October 14 cited as likely date

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Current Members of Parliament and political hopefuls are gearing up in anticipation of a fall election call, with the incumbents in local ridings looking to hold on for another term.

Though early polls suggest that Stephen Harper's Conservatives are likely to win another minority government, local ridings tend to swing Liberal. Eglinton-Lawrence, St. Paul's, Toronto Centre and Don Valley West have long been seen as Liberal strongholds, with Grit incumbents aiming to hold their Parliamentary seats in each.

EGLINTON-LAWRENCE

Bounded by the Canadian National rail line to the west, Yonge Street to the east, Highway 401 to the north and Eglinton Avenue to the south, Eglinton-Lawrence comprises such affluent areas as Lawrence Park and North Toronto. There are also lower income areas within the riding, such as portions of the former City of York.

According to 2001 census data, the riding was home to 110,066 residents, with large Jewish and Italian populations.

Liberal incumbent Joe Volpe has been a fixture in the area, holding his seat as Eglinton-Lawrence's MP since 1988. In the 2006 federal election, Volpe defeated his closest pursuer, Conservative Peter Coy, by more than 11,000 votes.

Area residents have voted Liberal since the riding was formed from parts of five other ridings in 1976.

Volpe will be challenged by Conservative hopeful Joe Oliver and Green Party candidate Andrew James. The NDP had yet to confirm a candidate in the riding as of press time.

ST. PAUL'S

To the south of that riding, St. Paul's is bounded by Dufferin Street and Winona Drive to the west, Bayview Avenue to the east, Eglinton Avenue to the north and the Canadian Pacific railway line to the south.

The area is small, but densely populated, encompassing the Forest Hill community and other neighbourhoods just north of the downtown Toronto core. It was home to 111,131 residents according to 2001 census data.

St. Paul's was historically considered a bellwether riding, swaying between Liberal and Conservative MPs until 1993. Since then, it has held as a Liberal riding, with incumbent MP Carolyn Bennett holding her seat in Parliament since taking over from fellow Liberal Barry Campbell in 2003.

Bennett staved off star Conservative candidate Peter Kent in the 2003 federal election, nearly doubling Kent's vote total in winning the riding by more than 14,000 votes.

The Green Party and New Democrats had yet to confirm candidates in the ridings as of press time, while calls to the Conservatives were not returned.

TORONTO CENTRE

Toronto Centre has also voted Liberal in the last several elections, though it has traditionally been relatively friendly to the Conservatives. While it has been in Liberal hands since 1993, residents in the area voted Tory from 1978 through 1993.

The riding's incumbent has only been in Parliament since earlier this year - Liberal Bob Rae won a March by-election after long-time Grit Bob Graham retired.

The area is bounded by Mount Pleasant Cemetery to the north, Lake Ontario to the south, Avenue Road to the west and the Don River to the east.

The riding is also one of the most diverse in Canada, taking in such distinct communities as posh Rosedale and Moore Park, rejuvenated Cabbagetown and multicultural St. James Town. It was home to 121,407 residents according to 2001 census data.

Rae won his seat easily in the by-election, defeating New Democrat El-Farouk Khaki by over 10,000 votes.

Ellen Michelson of the Green Party will oppose Rae in the expected election, while the NDP had not confirmed a candidate as of press time and calls to the Conservative Party were not returned.

DON VALLEY WEST

Don Valley West voters will get an election - one way or the other.

Don Valley West was one of four ridings across Canada set for by-elections this month - Don Valley West slated for Monday, Sept. 22 and the other three for this Monday, Sept. 8.

All would be supersceded, of course, by an election call from Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

Don Valley West became vacant with the recent retirement of Liberal John Godfrey who is taking over as headmaster of Toronto French School.

The candidates lined up to replace him are Liberal Rob Oliphant, Conservative John Carmichael, New Democrat David Sparrow and the Green Party's Dr. Georgina Wilcock.

Don Valley West is a meandering riding that touches Hwy. 401 to the north, Pottery Road to the south, Yonge Street to the west and the Don Valley River (east of Don Mills Road) to the east. Visit www.elections.ca for map.